I did not want to get involved but now one of my children asked me questions so it is a different matter!
As some of you know I SHOULD understand what is going on. I was director of Research for the Louisiana Geological Survey, helped organise the LGS response teams to the Exxon Valdez spill, was Professor of Petroleum Geology at LSU, owned a company [Carbon System's] that specialized in locating methane gas bubbles prior to setting drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, educated lawyers on the way oil and gas is generated, and generally studied the distribution of biogenic material on the floor of the Gulf of Mexico.
Firstly, there is NO huge gas bubble under the Gulf of Mexico that is ready to explode and cause a catastrophic Tsunami.
Secondly, oxygen depleted ‘dead zones’ exist at depth in all of the Oceans and the one’s in the GOM have been studied for a long time.
Thirdly, the clathrates containing methane in the GOM have the same origin as those existing at depth in all Oceans of our Earth and they are a water bottom phenomenon.
Fourthly, methane gas in petroleum reservoirs are mostly petrogenic methane formed by organic matter passing into and through the oil-window at depth. This petrogenic methane is either dispersed in the inter-grain space in most sediments, or accumulate in traps where they form a top layer in the water-oil-gas accumulations in reservoirs.
Fifthly, biogenic gas, formed from bacterial degradation of organic matter at the surface and at SHALLOW depths, can form biogenic methane gas pockets of sufficient size to explode – but only if there is a sudden pressure release such as penetrated by shallow drilling when placing a drilling rig on the sea floor. This is known to have cause destructive effects in the GOM in the past and is the reason why shallow drilling testing was/is done as part of the required hazard and environmental program prior to issuing a drilling permit by the State.
The Deepwater Horizon disaster is spewing out a lot of methane gas and this will have an adverse effect on the chemistry of the seawater and all life contained therein. The bacteria in the seawater are more interested in the oil as a food source and hopefully will speed degradation of the hydrocarbons over time. I certainly agree with Professor Kessler that there is a lot of methane being produced and it possibly is ‘the most vigorous methane eruption in modern history’, however, it’s overall effect on Earth’s biocoenosis will be negligible. It’s effect is felt primarily on people who are loosing wealth. Because of the permanent ocean current-flow in the GOM those principally effected were predicted to be at the onset, and now are, the people of Mississippi, Alabama and north-western Florida, with minor effects on Louisiana. If a hurricane hits coastal Louisiana that will change, especially in the brackish marshes which rely on daily tidal flushing for their vigour.
The following is un-scientific opinion. Regarding the Federal Government policy of stopping all drilling I think the ruling was unwarranted – because the event was caused by human error. The MMS was supposed to have had rules and regulations in place to fore-stall such an event as this Deepwater Horizon spill. Clearly more is needed. From the hundreds of eMails, interviews and discussions I have seen and read, those of ‘drillers’, and the few technicians on the Deepwater Horizon rig, seem to be the more knowledgeable. It appears that the disaster was caused by technical people on the rig not reporting problems up through the system, those higher up in the system not understanding the potential disaster that could await; and, by some British Petroleum managers not being scientifically savvy enough and/or cautious enough.
George F. Hart